Evaluating the effects of consecutive hurricane hits on evacuation patterns in Dominica

The Caribbean island of Dominica is at constant risk of being hit by tropical storms during the hurricane season. Therefore, Dominica and areas in similar situations need to raise their resilience to natural hazards. The potential consequences of climate change intensify this risk. After a hurricane hit, repair of damage to buildings and infrastructure can take several months. As hurricane frequency is increasing and time between hurricanes fluctuates, modeling sequences of hurricane events can help to determine different evacuation strategies. This paper introduces an agent-based model, simulating two hurricane events in one season. The prototype simulates the movement of evacuees over a road network and damage to buildings and infrastructure. Initial results show marked differences between road movements of evacuees during a second evacuation. Although shifts in the average shelter occupation are small (up to 2%) for our case study, this can indicate that adjustments to shelter capacities are necessary.