Predicting the Future of Disruptive Technologies: The Method of Alternative Histories.

Abstract With digital technologies shaping competition in many industries, predicting the future of potentially disruptive technologies becomes an essential task of business leaders concerned with the survival and success of their organizations. Looking into the future of disruptive technologies requires a philosophical stance and a practical method that accommodates the inherent uncertainty and nonlinearity of the path of disruptive innovations. Unfortunately, much of the current thinking in relation to adoption and diffusion of innovations is rather linear and deterministic. This article proposes a set of philosophical principles, together with a practical brainstorming method, for glimpsing into the future of disruptive technologies. The method of alternative histories is based on the traditional brainstorming techniques and the philosophical ideas of Imre Lakatos, Roy Bhaskar, Bruno Latour, and Nassim Taleb.