Establishment of a Risk Assessment Framework for Analysis of the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

Abstract To evaluate the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in mainland China, a risk assessment framework was built. Risk factors were determined by analyzing the epidemic data using the brainstorming method; the analytic hierarchy process was designed to weigh risk factors, and the integrated multicriteria analysis was used to evaluate the final result. The completed framework included the risk factor system, data standards for risk factors, weights of risk factors, and integrated assessment methods. This risk assessment framework can be used to quantitatively analyze the outbreak and spread of HPAI in mainland China.