Scale effects on runoff and a decomposition analysis of the main driving factors in Haihe Basin mountainous area

Abstract Catchment runoff scale relationships comprise an important theoretical support for water resource management. However, previous understandings of the scale effect were mostly based on empirical summaries and quantitative research, while interpretation based on measured data was rare. The purpose of this paper was to quantitatively reveal the causes of runoff scale impacts in the Haihe mountainous area over a 20-year period. Fifty-seven catchments (92-15803 km 2 ) were selected from the available hydrological sites. Multi-year average values for17 environmental variables were calculated in each catchment over the study period, including data on hydrology, meteorology, vegetation, land use, topography, and soil. Based on these data, the quantitative relationship between runoff and catchment area was first established. Then the correlation between environmental factors and runoff scale impacts was assessed. Finally, catchments were divided into three groups by area, and the dominant factors influencing runoff at different scales, as well as the direct and indirect effects of these factors on runoff, were obtained using stepwise regression and path analysis. The results showed that: 1) Runoff coefficients decreased logarithmically as catchment area increased and the scale distribution characteristics of the variables closely related to runoff were an important reason for the runoff scale effect. 2) Larger river basins had fewer sensitivity factors for runoff and the impacts of vegetation and land use factors were mainly reflected in small and medium catchments. 3) Vegetation and land use primarily had indirect effects, which determined the proportion of factors in the total effect. Among these, the indirect effects of farmland were very prominent, which implied that human activities have had an important influence on runoff scale effects. This study emphasized the importance of farmland management in the upstream areas of Haihe mountainous area, and provides important theoretical support for catchment scale effects and water resource management in water-limited regions.