Modelling the inactivation of viruses from the Coronaviridae family in response to temperature and relative humidity in suspensions or surfaces.

Temperature and relative humidity are major factors determining virus inactivation in the environment. This article reviews inactivation data of coronaviruses on surfaces and in liquids from published studies and develops secondary models to predict coronaviruses inactivation as a function of temperature and relative humidity. A total of 102 D-values (time to obtain a log10 reduction of virus infectivity), including values for SARS-CoV-2, were collected from 26 published studies. The values obtained from the different coronaviruses and studies were found to be generally consistent. Five different models were fitted to the global dataset of D-values. The most appropriate model considered temperature and relative humidity. A spreadsheet predicting the inactivation of coronaviruses and the associated uncertainty is presented and can be used to predict virus inactivation for untested temperatures, time points or any coronavirus strains belonging to Alphacoronavirus and Betacoronavirus genera.Importance: The prediction of the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on fomites is essential to investigate the importance of contact transmission. This study collects available information on inactivation kinetics of coronaviruses in both solid and liquid fomites and creates a mathematical model for the impact of temperature and relative humidity on virus persistence. The predictions of the model can support more robust decision-making and could be useful in various public health contexts. Having a calculator for the natural clearance of SARS-CoV-2 depending on temperature and relative humidity could be a valuable operational tool for public authorities.