The International Forest Risk Model (INFORM): A Method for Assessing Supply Chain Deforestation Risk with Imperfect Data

A method for quantifiably estimating the deforestation risk exposure of agricultural Forest Risk Commodities in commercial supply chains is presented. The model consists of a series of equations applied using end-to-end data representing quantitative descriptors of the supply chain and its effect on deforestation. A robust penalty is included for historical deforestation and a corresponding reward for reductions in the rate of deforestation. The INternational FOrest Risk Model (INFORM) is a method for data analysis that answers a particular question for any Forest Risk Commodity in a supply chain: what is its cumulative deforestation risk exposure? To illustrate the methodology a case study of a livestock producer in France who sources soya-based animal feed from Brazil and wishes to document the deforestation risk associated with the product is described and calculated. Building on this example a discussion of the future applicability of INFORM within emerging supply-chain transparency initiatives is made including describing clear shortcomings in the method and how it may also be used to motivate the production of better data by those that may be subject of its analysis.