SUB-TOPIC 1: DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURES AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR (CONTRIBUTION FROM THE NETHERLANDS)

This paper describes an approach to long-term forecasting of future mobility and car ownership based on demographic change and its impact on the social behaviour which generates mobility. Two particular features of this model are the use of birth year cohorts (in groups of 5 years) instead of age groups and the use of 'consumer units' (couples or singles) rather than households. The background to the model is outlined and its advantages described. Two types of independent variable are described. External variables include economic growth, socio- economic development, costs of car ownership and use, changes in public transport service level and cost and government policies. Internal variables include change in family position, change in position in economic process and change in disposable income. The application of the cohort model to the case of the Netherlands is outlined and the resulting forecasts for car ownership in 2015 tabulated. For the covering abstract of the conference see IRRD 856322.