Sensitivity of Yields of Major Rainfed Crops to Climate in India

There is now adequate evidence about the impending climate change and the consequences thereof. The fourth assessment report of IPCC observed that ‘warming of climate system is now unequivocal, as is now evident from the observations of increase in the global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global sea level’ (IPCC, 2007). These changes and their effects are likely to affect global livelihood and environmental systems in various ways. Since climatic factors serve as direct inputs to agriculture, any change in climatic factors is bound to have a significant impact on crop yields and production. This area has attracted the attention of researchers in the recent times as is evident by the growing number of studies on the impact of climate change on agriculture. Studies have shown a significant effect of change in climatic factors on the average crop yield [Dinar et al. (1998), Seo and Mendelsohn (2008), Mall et al. (2006) and Cline (2007)]. However the impact of climatic factors on mean crop yield has not been investigated much especially in agriculture based developing economies where there is likely to be more serious repercussions in terms of food security, inequality and economic growth. Uncertainties in weather create risky environments for crop production, farming systems and food supply. The way climate change will affect agricultural productivity is expected to vary depending upon the various factors including geography and technology levels. While an overall significant damage of 3.2 per cent is expected in the global agricultural production by the 2080s under business as usual scenario, it is found that the losses may even go up to 15.9 per cent if the carbon fertilisation effect is not realised. The developing countries, predominantly located near the lower altitude, are most likely to incur a much greater loss roughly quantified at 21 per cent (Cline, 2007). In developing countries, climate change will cause yield declines for the most important crops and South Asia will be particularly hard hit (IFPRI, 2009). Many studies in the past have shown that India is likely to witness one of the highest agricultural productivity losses in the world in accordance with the climate change pattern observed and scenarios projected.