The HST Quasar Absorption Line Key Project. XIV. The Evolution of Ly-alpha Absorption Lines in the Redshift Interval 0 to 1.5

We present an analysis of the evolution of the Ly alpha absorption lines in the redshift interval 0.0 to \sim 1.5 based upon a sample of 987 lines identified in the spectra of 63 QSOs obtained with the Faint Object Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope. Fits to the number of absorbers per unit redshift dN/dz = A \times (1+z)^\gamma yield values of \gamma in the range 0.1 to 0.3, decidedly flatter than results from groundbased data pertaining to the redshift range z > 1.7. The combination of the space and groundbased data suggest a marked transition in the rate of evolution of the Ly alpha lines at a redshift of about 1.7. The distribution in redshift is well represented by a power law and the distribution of equivalent widths above a rest equivalent width of 0.1 \AA is fit well by an exponential. The sample of Ly alpha systems which has ions from heavy elements has a much larger value of \gamma than a sample of lines of comparable strength without heavy elements. We argue that this is not likely due to either line misidentification or incomplete spectral coverage and suggest that it is due to rapid evolution of the very highest column density systems, rather than differences in metallicity. We also find evidence that the rate of evolution increases with increasing equivalent width. We compare our results for the variation of line density with redshift to recent numerical simulations of Ly alpha absorbers, and find fairly good agreement. Our results for the stronger Ly alpha lines in our sample are compatible with the recent analysis of the absorber--galaxy correlation by Chen et al. 1998 but for the weaker lines our results suggest that the association between absorbers and galaxies is different from that for the stronger lines.