Development and validation of a prognostic model for adult patients with acute myeloid leukaemia

Abstract Background The high heterogeneity of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) reflected in the patient- and disease-related factors accounts for the unsatisfactory prognosis despite the introduction of novel therapeutic approaches and drugs in recent years. Methods In the development set (n = 412), parameters including age, hematopoietic cell transplantation-comorbidity index, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, biallelic CEBPA mutations, DNMT3A mutations, FLT3-ITD/NPM1 status, and ELN cytogenetic risk status were identified as independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in the multivariable Cox regression analysis. A nomogram combining these predictors for individual risk estimation was established thereby. Findings The prognostic model demonstrated promising performance in the development cohort. The calibration plot, C-index (0.74), along with the 1-, 2- and 3-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC, 0.76, 0.79, and 0.74, respectively) in the validation set (n = 238) substantiated the robustness of the model. In addition to stratifying young (age ≤ 60 years) and elderly patients (age > 60 years) into three and two risk groups with significant distinct outcomes, the prognostic model succeeded in distinguishing eligible candidates for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Interpretation The prognostic model is capable of survival prediction, risk stratification and helping with therapeutic decision-making with the use of easily acquired variables in daily clinical routine. Funding This work was supported in part by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81770141), the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFE0202800), and Shanghai Municipal Education Commission-Gaofeng Clinical Medicine Grant Support (20161406).