A computer system for prediction of risk in Mediterranean shrublands

Erosion and desertification as one of its obvious consequences, is one of the main environmental problems of Mediterranean countries. In order to build dynamic models for the prediction and management of degraded Mediterranean forest areas it has been necessary to build MARIOLA, which is a calculation computer program. This program includes the following steps (sub-programs): a) BIOSHRUB program, which calculates the shrublands total, green and woody biomass and which establishes the time differences to calculate the growth; b) SELEGO program, which builds the flow equations from the experimental data. It is based on advanced procedures of statistical multiple regression; c) VEGETATION program, that solves the state equations with the integration methods of Euler or Runge-Kutta. Each one of these sub-programs can act as independent or as linked programs. The aim of this paper is to present and analyze this software.