Prediction of irinotecan toxicity in metastatic colorectal cancer patients based on machine learning models with pharmacokinetic parameters

Abstract Irinotecan (CPT-11) is a drug used against a wide variety of tumors, which can cause severe toxicity, possibly leading to the delay or suspension of the cycle, with the consequent impact on the prognosis of survival. The main goal of this work is to predict the toxicities derived from CPT-11 using artificial intelligence methods. The data for this study is conformed of 53 cycles of FOLFIRINOX, corresponding to patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. Supported by several demographic data, blood markers and pharmacokinetic parameters resulting from a non-compartmental pharmacokinetic study of CPT-11 and its metabolites (SN-38 and SN-38-G), we use machine learning techniques to predict high degrees of different toxicities (leukopenia, neutropenia and diarrhea) in new patients. We predict high degree of leukopenia with an accuracy of 76%, neutropenia with 75% and diarrhea with 91%. Among other variables, this study shows that the areas under the curve of CPT-11, SN-38 and SN-38-G play a relevant role in the prediction of the studied toxicities. The presented models allow to predict the degree of toxicity for each cycle of treatment according to the particularities of each patient.