Crash hit frequency analysis of aircraft overflights of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the Device Assembly Facility (DAF)

Aircraft crashes are an element of external events required to be analyzed and documented in Facility Safety Analysis Reports (SARs) and Nuclear Explosive Safety Studies (NESS). Aircraft crashes into DOE facilities are of concern due to effects related to impact and fire that can potentially lead to penetration of the facility, disruption of operations, and the potential of release of radioactive and/or hazardous materials subsequent to the aircraft impact. Recent changes in the control of the airspace were not considered in previous safety studies of aircraft flights over the NTS [Refs. 4,5,6]. The Airspace changes have warranted review of the effects of the issued MOU on the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) Authorization Basis Documents [Refs. 4,5], the underlying analysis assumptions, and results relevant to aircraft crash. This report documents the review and analysis of aircraft crash hit frequency on the DAF within NTS. It focuses on the impact of airspace changes based on the MOU. The frequency of an aircraft crashing and hitting the DAF is in the 1 E-7 to E-8 range. While this is considered to be acceptably small, it should not be considered an upper bound. This conclusion should not be interpreted to mean that no furthermore » work need be done. The results of the analysis are highly dependent on the assumptions made and the available data. There is considerable uncertainty in the number of overflights which are taking place over the NTS and restricted airspace R-4808N. To reduce this uncertainty, additional follow-on work should be done to activate the monitor in the CP at NTS which is to receive information from the Nellis Range control station, to monitor the level of air activity in R-4808N and to recalculate the aircraft crash hit frequency on the DAF when better overflight estimates are obtained. Finally, to reduce the human error component, the process by which the DOE notifies the USAF of �no-fly� periods for R-4808N during which SNM is present in the DAF should be formalized either by modifying an existing operational procedure or instituting a new procedure. Additionally, the process for DOE notification by DAF personnel of the presence of SNM should be formalized.« less