Ecosystem implications of fine-scale frontal disturbances in the oligotrophic ocean – an idealized modeling approach

Abstract In the subtropical ocean, physical and biogeochemical patchiness exists across a range of spatial and temporal scales. As ocean surface temperatures rise, climate models suggest that the strength of basin-scale biological carbon pump may diminish due to increased stratification and depleted surface nutrients. However, global model predictions often cannot account for climate-physical-ecosystem interactions occurring at finer spatial scales (e.g., less than a few tens of kilometers). In order to study such fine-scale interactions, we developed a computationally tractable, idealized modeling framework that allows for a systematic assessment of the impact of fine-scale frontal disturbances (i.e., short-lived upwelling and downwelling events) on biogeochemical and ecosystem dynamics. The model successfully captured both the mean dynamics and the range of ecosystem variability observed at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) site in the oligotrophic North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. Fine-scale frontal disturbances were shown to impact both phytoplankton assemblages and carbon cycling. Specifically, disturbances of shorter duration but higher intensity favored the growth of large phytoplankton and contributed to elevated carbon export efficiency. However, for disturbances of longer duration and higher intensity, a decoupling between physical changes and biological responses led to a reduced utilization efficiency of upwelled nutrients and thus a reduction in new production. Our results emphasize that future changes in both large and fine-scale physical dynamics may play an important role in shaping marine ecosystems, and could be accounted for in the next-generation global climate models using this type of parameterization.