Estimation Method and Evaluation of System Dynamics Model for the Initial Spread of COVID-19 A Case Study of Gansu Province

[Purpose/Significance] COVID-19 epidemic is a major public health emergency that has occurred in China since the founding of New China, with rapid spread, wide range of infections, and difficulty in prevention and control After the outbreak, the governments at all levels in China took active prevention and control measures to effectively control the spread of the outbreak In view of the characteristics of COVID-19, which is highly contagious, has many asymptomatic infections, and has a high fatality rate, how to scientifically determine the virus transmission path and infection scale in the early stage of the outbreak is very important [Design/Methods] This article uses the public notification data in the first 8 days since the first confirmed cases were found in Gansu Province to construct a COVID-19 patient movement analysis model based on system dynamics The changes in the number of confirmed patients are reasonably estimated and predicted to provide a reference for the implementation of related prevention and control measures [Findings/Conclusion] Through analysis and comparison, the analysis model has a strong applicability to the spreading rules in the initial stage of the outbreak, and has a high reference value for the estimated spreading scale in related countries or areas with infection