External validation of OroGrams as a predictive model for Overall and Progression Free Survival in Scottish Patients with Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma – A retrospective cohort study
2020
Abstract Aim The aims of this study were to externally validate the OroGrams (Oropharyngeal cancer survival calculator) nomogram in a Scottish cohort with high endemic smoking rates and to compare survival rates to the original validation cohort. Methods A retrospective cohort study in Greater Glasgow and Clyde ENT and OMFS surgery departments was performed, to investigate survival outcomes of patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) from January 2012 - December 2017. The main outcome measures were progression free (PFS), overall survival (OS) and Kaplan Meier curves. The predictive accuracy of OroGrams was investigated at 1, 3 and 5 year survival probabilities. Results Smoking and HPV-negative cancer rates are significantly higher in Scottish patients than the UK consortium cohort. A greater proportion of Scottish patients have advanced UICC8 stages. PFS of patients with HPV-negative cancer appeared better in the Scottish cohort than the original cohort. Calculated mean standardised Brier scores for PFS and OS were below 0.2 at all three follow up points, suggesting good overall prognostic accuracy, but there was a wide variation between predictive accuracy in individual patients. Conclusions OroGrams shows prognostic accuracy at 1-year follow up in Scotland. The accuracy decreases with longer follow up periods.
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