Descifrando el lenguaje del Banco de México
2013
This article analyzes Banco de Mexico’s communication. To do so, it identifies certain phrases and words in the monetary policy decision announcement and assigns to them a numerical value which results in a communication index. Incorporating this index in Taylor rules, it is found that Banco de Mexico’s communication provides signs to the market that contribute to forecast the monetary policy interest rate. Other relevant conclusion is that both the market and the analysts understand the communication’s tone, which has contributed to make the market expectations on interest rates more consistent with Banxico’s view, and keep them closer and be more stable in relation to their finally observed levels.// Este articulo analiza la comunicacion del Banco de Mexico. Para hacerlo identifica ciertas frases y palabras en el anuncio de la decision de politica monetaria y les asigna un valor, lo que deriva en un indice de comunicacion. Incorporando este indice en reglas de Taylor se concluye que la comunicacion del Banco de Mexico proporciona senales al mercado que contribuyen a pronosticar la tasa objetivo de politica monetaria. Otra conclusion relevante es que tanto el mercado como los analistas entienden el sentido de la comunicacion, lo que ha contribuido a que las expectativas de las tasas de interes del mercado sean mas congruentes con la vision del banco central, ademas de mas cercanas y estables en relacion con el nivel finalmente observado.
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