Interfacing an enhanced radar echo tracking algorithm with a rainfall-runoff model for real-time flood forecasting

Abstract The problem of combining short-term rainfall forecasts with rainfall-runoff models for use within a real-time flow forecasting system is addressed. A tracking algorithm called COTREC (COntinuity of TREC vectors) is used to provide quantitative rainfall estimates for input to the PDM (Probability Distributed Model) rainfall-runoff model. In general, improved rainfall forecasts feed through to enhance the quality of the flood forecast. Applying COTREC-derived (advection) rainfall forecasts slightly improved the flood forecast compared to persistence. Including a linear extrapolation of growth areas did not lead to more precise flood forecasts.