LANDSLIDE MAPPING TO ANALYSE EARTHQUAKE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS (EEE) IN CARMONA, SPAIN - RELATION TO THE 1504 EVENT?

Landslide mapping to analyse earthquake environmental effects in Carmona, Spain - relation to the 1504 event?): The 1504 Carmona earthquake (intensity IX EMS) claimed the loss of human life and caused a number of Earthquake Environmental Effects. On the basis of historical data reported by George Bonsor (1918) this study is intended to estimate coseismic slope performance. The aim is to combine field investigations, geotechnical parameters and computerized models to generate digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps on a local scale. GIS-based simulations of mass movements driven by hydrodynamical and gravitational processes are performed by means of the factor of safety, which is calculated for dry and fully water saturated conditions. Following Newmarks sliding block model these approaches are extended to assess the potential of earthquake-triggered slope movements. Assuming a Peak Ground Acceleration of 0.3 g, representing the 1504 event, the most affected areas show a failure probability of 33.5 %.