A Novel Approach to Forecast Electricity Consumption Based on Fractional Grey Model

The application of new energy sources (wind, hydro, nuclear, etc.) is increasing day by day, which plays an indispensable role in the national economic development. Accurate prediction of electricity consumption in China will help make appropriate energy policies timely and guide the formulation of electricity consumption plans. Combining fractional order theory, a novel grey model is proposed based on optimizing initial condition. The optimized model and five other grey models are utilized in the predicting of China's new energy consumption. The simulation results show that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy than the other five models after comparing and analyzing prediction accuracy, which is very suited to forecast the energy consumption.