Service and Research on Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

Each month, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issues operational seasonal streamflow forecasts of total water volumes for three months ahead for over 200 locations across Australia (http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/). The forecasts are created using modelling approaches developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, through a close and ongoing research partnership. Outcomes from the Seasonal Climate Research Program of the Bureau and hydrologic research conducted by the university sector in Australia have also directly contributed to the development and delivery of this service. The publicly available forecasts are based on a statistical modelling approach that uses relationships from directly observed streamflow data and derived climate indices. Forecasts based on rainfall-runoff modelling forced by downscaled rainfall forecasts are currently being released to and evaluated by registered users.Work is underway to merge forecasts from these approaches to improve accuracy and reliability. Delivery and development of the forecasting service requires cooperation with internal and external stakeholders, a comprehensive understanding of user needs, support for research and development, robust operational modelling tools and web-based service delivery systems, a communication and adoption strategy, and an implementation plan. This chapter discusses how these multiple elements are combined to provide a national seasonal streamflow forecasting service for Australia.