A retrospective analysis technology of the Green Software Ecosystems development on the parametric identification of the Brown's model

The problem of determining the Green Software Ecosystems (GSE) development strategy using decision support tools is described in the article. The expediency of the foresight technology applying for the GSE development perspective directions evaluating is shown. It is indicated that the most critical, in this case, is the stage of forming the initial list of directions. The technology of retrospective analysis of the GSE development based on the parametric synthesis of the predictive model of exponential smoothing under the conditions of data uncertainty and methods for combining forecast estimates is presented. The applying of the developed technology provides experts with additional volumes of information about the perspectives for the GSE development. An example of a retrospective analysis of the GSE development directions is given. The results of the analysis are one of the sources of information for assessing the perspectives for the GSE development directions by experts.