Assessing Soil Loss by Water Erosion in a Typical Mediterranean Ecosystem of Northern Greece under Current and Future Rainfall Erosivity

Soil is a non-renewable resource essential for life existence. During the last decades it has been threatened by accelerating erosion with negative consequences for the environment and the economy. The aim of the current study was to assess soil loss changes in a typical Mediterranean ecosystem of Northern Greece, under climate change. To this end, freely available geospatial data was collected and processed using open-source software package. The widespread RUSLE empirical erosion model was applied to estimate soil loss. Current and future rainfall erosivity were derived from a national scale study considering average weather conditions and RCMs outputs for the medium Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP4.5). Results showed that average rainfall erosivity (R-Factor) was 508.85 MJ mm ha h−1 y−1 while the K-factor ranged from 0.0008 to 0.05 t ha h ha−1 MJ−1 mm−1 and LS-factor reached 60.51. Respectively, C-factor ranged from 0.01 to 0.91 and P-factor ranged from 0.42 to 1. The estimated potential soil loss rates will remain stable for the near future period (2021–2050), while an increase of approximately 9% is expected by the end of the 21th century (2071–2100). The results suggest that appropriate erosion mitigation strategies should be applied to reduce erosion risk. Subsequently, appropriate mitigation measures per Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) categories are proposed. It is worth noting that the proposed methodology has a high degree of transferability as it is based on open-source data.