The spatial correlation between earthquakes and landslides in Hokkaido (Japan), a GIS-based analysis of the past and the future

Although earthquakes are thought to be one of the factors responsible for the occurrence of landslides in Hokkaido, there exist no enough records which can allow correlating many of the old slope failures in the island with earthquakes. In the absence of these records, an attempt was done in this study to use the abundance, frequency, magnitude, depth, and distribution of historical earthquakes to deduce that many of the slope failures in the region were triggered by strong and continuous seismicity. The determination of the zones of influences of selected earthquakes using an existing empirical function has also supported this conclusion. Moreover, the use of a 10% probability of exceedance of earthquake intensity in 50 years, and the geological and slope maps has allowed preparing a landslide hazard map which explains the role of future earthquakes in the formation of slope failures. The result indicates a high probability of occurrences of landslides in the hilly regions of the southeastern part of Hokkaido due to expected strong seismicity and earthquake intensities in these areas. On the other hand, the low level of intensity in the north has given rise to low probability of landslide hazard. There are also places in the center of the island and high intensity regions in the east where the probability of landslide hazard was influenced by the contribution of the geological and slope maps.