Improving the Resilience of Guided Transport Systems for Natural Risks

This paper provides the construction of a qualitative and systemic methodology to assess the resilience of rail transport systems against natural hazards. To illustrate the capabilities of the methodology, it is applied for the flood hazard. The resilience of rail transport systems is analysed through the failure mechanisms to which they are subjected under flood conditions. These mechanisms lead to numerous, complex failure scenarios and modelling these scenarios enables the identification the components in the system that are successively damaged as a result of a disruption. The first part presents the construction of the methodology. The second part proposes a perspective of the methodology by shifting from a qualitative to a quantitative approach by using a probabilistic framework based on Bayesian networks. The choice of Bayesian networks , the construction of the quantitative model and its capabilities are demonstrated.