Global trade : slowdown, factors, and policies

Growth in global trade has been slow since 2012. While global trade downturns are not unprecedented, the observed change in the relationship of trade to GDP poses the question whether the trade slowdown is a transitory deviation or a more long-lasting phenomenon brought about by structural changes. This new dynamic, coupled with the rise of protectionist policies and rhetoric in many countries, positions trade at the forefront of policy discussions. This brief reviews recent patterns in global trade, examines the factors affecting trade—distinguishing between transitory and structural components of the slowdown—and discusses policies shaping the path of future trade.