Quantificational Research on Aging Population's Influence on Incidence for Lung Cancer in Jinshan District,Shanghai from 1985 to 2009

[Purpose] To investigate the effect of aging population for the rise in lung cancer incidence in Jinshan district,Shanghai to provided scientific evidence for making policies and prevention for lung cancer.[Methods] Based on population structure and age-specific incidence rate in 1985,annual contribution of aging population structure and other influence factors were analyzed by incidence rate-different decomposition method.[Results] Incidence rate of lung cancer was 65.02/105 in 2009 and 26.48 /105 in 1985 in Jinshan district.The incidence rate of lung cancer in 2009 was 2.46 times than of that in 1985.Standardized incidence rate of lung cancer was 33.03/105 in 2009 and 25.91 in 1985.Standardized incidonce rate of lung cancer in 2009 was 1.28 times than of that in 1985.Proportion of contribution of aging population to the rise of incidence of lung cancer increased from 13.47%(1990) to 71.10%(2009),proportion of contribution of other influence factors decreased from 86.53%(1990) to 28.90%(2009) though.[Conclusions] Aging population is one of the most important influencing factors led to the rise of incidence for lung cancer in Jinshan district.