A new algorithm of tracking ballistic missiles

A new algorithm for the problem of initiating the tracks assuming the target trajectories follow a deterministic state propagation, through the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator combined with the probabilistic data association (PDA) First some well-known approaches for statistical model selection and the advantage of using the MDL criterion were reviewed, Then a one-dimensional example was used to illustrate the MDL criterion for multiple composite hypothesis testing and the performance limit of the ML-PDA for track initiation interpreted in terms of the sharpness of the hypothesis testing. Finally, The MDL approach for the detection and initiation of tracks of incoming tactical ballistic missiles in the exo-atmospheric phase was applied using a surface based electronically scanned array (ESA) radar. The targets were characterized by low SNR, which lead to low detection probability and high false alarm rate. A batch of radar scans were processed to detect the presence of up to two targets. The ML-PDA estimator was used to initiate the tracks assuming the target trajectories follow a deterministic state propagation.