Risk factors of poor outcomes after admission for a COPD exacerbations. Multivariate logistic predictive models

Banckground: The aim of the study was to identify an age-adjusted multivariate model to predict failure after admission for a COPD exacerbation. Methods: Multicenter, observational and prospective study. COPD admitted patients were followed during 3 months. Relevant clinical variables at admission were selected. For each variable, the best cut-off for a new exacerbation were indentified using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Finally, a stepwise logistic regression model were performed. Results: A total of 106 patients were included. Mean age 71.1 (9.8), mean FEV1(%): 45.2%. Mean CAT at admission 24.8 (7.1). At 3 months 39 (36.8%) patients presented failure: death (2.8%), readmission (20.8%) or new ambulatory exacerbation (13.2%). Variables included in logistic model were: previous hospital admission, FEV1 9 /L, presence of sputum purulence and CAT at admission≥31. Final model showed that Hg Conclusions: Up to 38.8% of patients have a poor outcomes at 3 months after admission. Low Hb and high CRP are risk factors for failure. High CAT score at admission increase the predictive value of the model.