Short-run and long-run Granger causality analysis of the United Kingdom’s trade patterns in the fossil energy trade

This study describes the trade pattern of UK fossil energy in terms of imports and exports from 1962 to 2019 and deeply explores the internal causality between the comparative advantage of export and policy interventions including import restriction and export promotion. We document that the UK has been deliberately promoted the import of fossil energy. Granger causality tests show that in the short-run, the policy intervention in import is respectively affected by the policy intervention in export and the comparative advantage of export negatively. Moreover, there are Granger causality running from comparative advantage of exports to import restriction with negative effect in the short-run and with positive effect in the long-run. When it comes to the relationship between policy intervention in export and import, export promotion causes import restriction negatively in the short-run and long-run.