Volatile organic compound analysis, a new tool in the quest for preterm birth prediction-an observational cohort study.

Preterm birth is the leading cause of death worldwide in children under five years. Due to its complex multifactorial nature, prediction is a challenge. Current research is aiming to develop accurate predictive models using patient history, ultrasound and biochemical markers. Volatile organic compound (VOC) analysis is an approach, which has good diagnostic potential to predict many disease states. Analysis of VOCs can reflect both the microbiome and host response to a condition. We aimed to ascertain if VOC analysis of vaginal swabs, taken throughout pregnancy, could predict which women go on to deliver preterm. Our prospective observational cohort study demonstrates that VOC analysis of vaginal swabs, taken in the midtrimester, is a fair test (AUC 0.79) for preterm prediction, with a sensitivity of 0.66 (95%CI 0.56-0.75) and specificity 0.89 (95%CI 0.82-0.94). Using vaginal swabs taken closest to delivery, VOC analysis is a good test (AUC 0.84) for the prediction of preterm birth with a sensitivity of 0.73 (95%CI 0.64-0.81) and specificity of 0.90 (95%CI 0.82-0.95). Consequently, VOC analysis of vaginal swabs has potential to be used as a predictive tool. With further work it could be considered as an additional component in models for predicting preterm birth.