System Dynamics Modeling of Dockless Bike-Sharing Program Operations: A Case Study of Mobike in Beijing, China

In China, dockless bike-sharing programs (DBSPs) have changed people’s travel modes, alleviated urban traffic congestion, and reduced carbon emissions. However, a number of DBSPs have experienced financial crises since 2018. This means that research on DBSPs must be considered not only in terms of the environment and technology, but also in the operation of the program. In this paper, we modeled the DBSP operations in a certain area using a system dynamics simulation approach. The main purpose was to explore the dynamics of the program’s operation process and evaluate possible improvement strategies for maximizing the revenue of the overall DBSP. Specifically, the analysis focused on the economic profits of DBSPs in an environment of competition and government regulation. The research findings revealed that the dockless bike-sharing industry has great economic profits, but in the current environment, the market needs to be regulated by the local government. If a DBSP does not introduce new technologies or find new profit channels, it will be difficult to develop sustainably by only relying on riding profits. In addition, we provide a case study of Mobike’s operations in Beijing to support these findings and validate the developed model. Finally, we discuss Mobike’s possible improvement strategies.