Shifting tides: global economic scenarios for 2015–25

At the National People’s Congress in Beijing in March 2015, China’s Premier Li Keqiang announced a growth target of 7 percent, acknowledging that 'deep-seated problems in the country’s economy are becoming more obvious'. Three months later and thousands of miles away in Washington, the World Bank lowered its growth forecasts across the board and asked the US Federal Reserve Bank to delay any contemplated rate hikes. The World Bank’s chief economist said that it had 'just switched on the seat belt sign. We are advising nations, especially emerging economies, to fasten their seat belts'. So it’s going to be a bumpy ride? How bumpy? And for how long?