Deep learning risk assessment models for predicting progression of radiographic medial joint space loss over a 48-MONTH follow-up period

Summary Objective To develop and evaluate deep learning (DL) risk assessment models for predicting the progression of radiographic medial joint space loss using baseline knee X-rays. Methods Knees from the Osteoarthritis Initiative without and with progression of radiographic joint space loss (defined as > 0.7mm decrease in medial joint space width measurement between baseline and 48-month follow-up X-rays) were randomly stratified into training (1400 knees) and hold-out testing (400 knees) datasets. A DL network was trained to predict the progression of radiographic joint space loss using the baseline knee X-rays. An artificial neural network was used to develop a traditional model for predicting progression utilizing demographic and radiographic risk factors. A combined joint training model was developed using a DL network to extract information from baseline knee X-rays as a feature vector, which was further concatenated with the risk factor data vector. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis was performed using the hold-out test dataset to evaluate model performance. Results The traditional model had an AUC of 0.660 (61.5% sensitivity and 64.0% specificity) for predicting progression. The DL model had an AUC of 0.799 (78.0% sensitivity and 75.5% specificity), which was significantly higher (p Conclusion DL models using baseline knee X-rays had higher diagnostic performance for predicting the progression of radiographic joint space loss than the traditional model using demographic and radiographic risk factors.