МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ СЕЛЬСКИХ ТЕРРИТОРИЙ В ГЕОИНФОРМАЦИОННЫХ СИСТЕМАХ С УЧЁТОМ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ КЛИМАТА

The article highlights necessity of analysis and forecast of stability of rural territories development interrelated with development of agriculture, and also with monitoring the basic indicators of a state of ecology, the analysis of risky situations of land tenure and agricultural wildlife management. The validity of using the term “ecological economic load” is discussed. Five conditions for providing steady development of rural territories are as follows: increase of an index of human development; preservation of a surrounding environment; positive dynamics of investments into objects of social sphere; growth of current expenses for nature protection actions; steady development of all industrial sphere. For the analysis, monitoring and forecasting of rural territories development one could use a model of steady development and analysis of risky situations in agroindustrial systems, developed by the authors on the basis of the theory of constant bookkeeping, marginal analysis and concept of life cycle. On the ascending branch of the curve there are fixed eight stages of development of the organization from the beginning of functioning to the accelerated economic growth, and on the descending ‒ are as many risky situations: from loss of the growth acceleration up to bankruptcy. This model makes it possible to investigate influence of fluctuations of the basic weather parameters and various abnormal natural phenomena, soil qualitiy and organizational-technology factors on the results of activity of the agricultural organizations. Research of risks and threats to steady development of agrarian manufacture in conditions of climate change is illustrated by the analysis of influence of fluctuations of quantity of atmospheric precipitation and daily average temperatures of air on productivity of spring wheat in experiments by Research Institute of the Southeast agriculture, as well as dependence of stability of manufacture on natural fertility ground on the basis of data from “Solianskoe” experimental agroindustrial facilities.The use of geoinformation systems (GIS) is shown at the analysis of stability of development of agricultural production. The basic (prototype) model of monitoring and all-round estimation of a state and level of development of economy of agroindustrial complex of territories of the Russian Federation has been presented.