Dynamic biomass potential from agricultural land

Abstract The potential of biomass from agricultural land cannot be seen as a constant value over time, but rather as a dynamic one influenced by changes in many factors and characteristics. The most important include the amount of available agricultural land, the structure of cultivated crops, allocation of energy crops, the effect of a learning curve and the impact of climate change. Our method used for determination of biomass potential is based on usage of the GIS model that includes key parameters such as soil and climatic characteristics of farming plots and expected crop yields related to them, changes in arable land, planting area, utilization of biomass, and the influence of climate change. Results from modelling different scenarios for the Czech Republic show that allocating 20% of arable land for energy crops increases biomass potential by 35%, 30 PJ (compared with current nearly 0% allocation) on a time horizon 2040. If a learning curve effect for energy crops (impact of breeding and improved agrotechnologies on biomass yields) in the range of 1.5–2.5% per year is considered, then biomass potential increases by 49% (42 PJ) in total.