Sea Level Forecasts and Early-Warning Application: Expanding Cooperation in the South Pacific

AbstractBecause of the need for information related to the variability and predictability of sea level on season-to-longer time scales, the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center runs the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based canonical correlation analysis (CCA) statistical model to generate sea level forecasts for the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region with lead times of 3–6 months in advance. However, in order to meet the increasing demand for longer lead-time (e.g., 6–12 months) forecasts, the PEAC Center, as part of the advances in operational sea level forecasts, recently incorporated both SST and zonal wind components of trade winds (U) for modulating sea level variability on longer time scales. The combined SST and U-based forecasts are found to be more skillful on longer time scales. This improvement has enabled the capability of our clients in the USAPI region to develop a more efficient long-term response plan for hazard management.In a recent “Regional Integrated Water ...