To build a prognostic score model containing indispensible tumour markers for metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in an epidemic area

Abstract Background and objective The survival outcomes of patients with metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) differ significantly between individuals. The aim of this study is to build a prognostic score model (PSM) incorporating circulating tumour markers for metastatic NPC in an epidemic area. Methods Seven hundred and ninety-nine patients with disseminated NPC were analysed retrospectively. Univariate and multivariable analyses were conducted using the Cox proportion hazards model. Factors analysed included patients , characteristics (gender, age group, performance status), circulating tumour-marker characteristics (Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) DNA level, EBV VCA-IgA level, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, alkaline phosphatase (ALP) level), basic laboratory characteristics (leucocyte count, haemoglobin level, albumin level), and disease characteristics (presence of metastasis at presentation, disease-free interval, number of metastatic sites, specific metastatic sites). The PSM was built according to numerical score derived from the regression coefficients of each independent prognostic variable. The prognostic score of each patient was calculated by totalling up the scores of each independent variable. Results Independent prognostic factors included performance status, age, haemoglobin level, LDH level, ALP level and EBV DNA level. Three prognostic groups based on PSM were obtained: low risk (total score = 0–4); intermediate risk (5–8); high risk (9–12). Median survivals of the three groups were 25.5, 15.1 and 7 months, respectively, ( P Conclusion Clinical and laboratory characteristics can help guide the prognostication of patients with metastatic NPC in epidemic areas.