U.S. Trends in Adolescent Substance Use and Conduct Problems and Their Relation to Trends in Unstructured In-Person Socializing With Peers

Abstract Purpose This study examined whether national trends in unstructured in-person socializing with peers (i.e., socializing without goals or supervision) among adolescents could help explain recent declines in adolescent risk behaviors (e.g., substance use, fighting, theft). Methods The sample contained of 44,842 U.S. 12th-grade students (aged 17–18 years) from the Monitoring the Future survey (years 1999–2017). Analyses examined (1) prevalence trends, (2) latent factor structure of risk behaviors and unstructured in-person socializing, and (3) whether trends in the unstructured in-person socializing factor accounted for the relationship between time (i.e., survey year) and the risk behavior factor. Results Adolescent risk behaviors and unstructured in-person socializing declined by approximately 30% in the U.S., and both formed coherent latent factors. After adjusting for sociodemographics, declines in unstructured in-person socializing accounted for approximately 86% of declines in risk behaviors. Conclusions The prevalence of risk behaviors and unstructured in-person socializing behaviors declined among U.S. 12th graders from 1999 to 2017. It is unknown whether such effects are directly causal and/or influenced by unmeasured variables. However, the results provide evidence that national declines in unstructured in-person socializing are a likely component of the explanation for national declines in adolescent risk behaviors.