Agent-Based Campus Novel Coronavirus Infection and Control Simulation.

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to its extremely high infectivity, has been spreading rapidly around the world and brought huge influence to socioeconomic development as well as people's production and life. Taking for example the virus transmission that may occur after college students return to school during the outbreak, we analyze the quantitative influence of the key factors on the virus spread, including crowd density and self-protection. One Campus Virus Infection and Control Simulation model (CVICS) of the novel coronavirus is designed in this paper, based on the characteristics of repeated contact and strong mobility of crowd in the closed environment. Specifically, we build an agent-based infection model, introduce the mean field theory to calculate the probability of virus transmission, and micro-simulate the daily prevalence of infection among individuals. The simulation experiment results show that the proposed model in this paper fully illuminate how the virus spread in the dense crowd. Furthermore, preventive and control measures such as self-protection, crowd decentralization and quarantine during the epidemic can effectively delay the arrival of infection peak and reduce the prevalence, and thus lower the risk of COVID-19 transmission after the students return to school.