Simulating Maritime Chokepoint Disruption in the Global Food Supply

The crops of wheat, maize, and rice make up almost two-thirds of the world’s dietary needs. Additionally, soybeans account for three-quarters of global livestock feed. Considering over half of the world’s exported supply of these commodities is exported via maritime means, the free flow of marine traffic becomes paramount. Current optimization models found in a number of studies involving food commodities lack the ability to capture the inherent variance in maritime transport. To capture this variance, a discrete-event simulation was built to understand how disruptions in this system impact those who rely on its unhindered functionality. Monthly export data are used, and the maritime chokepoints of the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Gibraltar are modeled for disruption. Results indicate significant food shortages for all importers studied. Marine traffic through the Strait of Malacca was also significantly impacted when any of the three chokepoints studied were closed.