One-hour plasma glucose concentration can identify elderly Chinese male subjects at high risk for future type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 20-year retrospective and prospective study.

Abstract Aim There have been few reports regarding the association between 1 h-PG concentration and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the elderly. This study was performed to assess the efficacy of 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG values in predicting future risk of T2DM in elderly. Methods The study population consisted of 928 male volunteers ≥ 55 years old without diabetes who were involved in a retrospective-prospective cohort study over 20 years with a baseline fasting plasma glucose and OGTT that included measurement of 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG. The predictive capabilities of FPG and 1 h-PG, 2 h-PG values obtained during OGTT alone and added to a clinical prediction model consisting of traditional diabetes risk factors were assessed. Results Overall, 577 of all the 928 study participants (62%) developed T2DM over the 20-year follow-up. 1 h-PG and 2 h-PG values predicted T2DM and remained independent predictors of T2DM after adjusting for various traditional risk factors [HR = 1.269 (95% CI = 1.214–1.327), P  Conclusions 1 h-PG is useful as a predictor of future development of T2DM independently of traditional risk factors in an elderly Chinese male population.