The Problem of Preventing the Development of Critical Combinations of Events in Large-Scale Systems

The problem of emergency combinations of events arising in large-scale systems due to the development of combinations of local events is investigated in this paper. Such local events individually are relatively non-hazardous for a large-scale system, but if they occur in a certain order at a certain point in time, they lead to critical modes of existence of the system as a whole. Modern means of warning can retaliate against individual adverse effects, and for effective prediction and prevention of accidental combinations, new mathematical support is needed to allow for the systematic analysis of accidental combinations of events at different intervals of time. The task of controlling the prevention of emergency combinations of events is set as a task of variation calculation on a conditional extremum. The concept and method of solving the task with the use of analysis of failure trees and ways of successful functioning are offered. The proposed method allows you to select the minimum set of unfavorable events. Parity of such events in subsystems makes it possible to reduce the possibility of development of emergency combinations of events in large-scale systems to an acceptable level. The obtained results are intended for use in decision support systems at various levels in the management of prevention of critical modes in large-scale systems.