Forest Ecological Security in China: A Quantitive Analysis of Twenty Five Years

Abstract Forest ecological security (FES) is an essential component of ecological security and plays an important role in national security. In this study, the Delphi method was used to construct a multi-index comprehensive evaluation system, and indicators were weighted using the entropy weight method. Based on data from 31 provinces, this study evaluated the status of FES in China from 1994 to 2018 and identified the influencing factors of FES. The results showed that indicators such as forest stock volume per unit land area, forest coverage rate, population density, and population per unit forest area contributed the most to the evaluation indicator system. Forest quantity and quality, as well as population pressure, were especially important factors affecting FES. In terms of spatial distribution, FES varied greatly between regions and the developments were unbalanced. Provinces in the northeast, southern and southwest forest regions, such as Jilin, Heilongjiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Yunnan, etc., had better FES due to their rich forest resources. The provinces in northwest China (Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, and Ningxia) and north China (Shanxi, Hebei, Being, and Tianjin) had worse FES compared to other provinces. With reference of temporal variation, the national average FES increased from 0.543 (1994–1998) to 0.593 (2014–2018). Furthermore, 51.6 percent of the provinces (Hainan, Fujian, Heilongjiang, Beijing, etc.) had continuous upward trends in their evaluation value of FES ( V FES ) during the study period, while the other provinces (Inner Mongolia, Shanghai, Shandong, etc.) exhibited fluctuating V FES . In general, the V FES of all provinces increased during the whole study period, and the average level of FES improved significantly, which indicated that China’s FES situation has shown continued improvement.