Risk-based airport selection for runway safety assessments through the development and application of systems-driven prioritization methodologies

A runway incursion is the erroneous presence of an aircraft or other object on the runway. Runway incursions are rare precursors to aviation accidents and result from a variety of complex factors. Current quantitative methods are inadequate for analysis, forecasting, and understanding the risk profiles of airports. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) biennially employs runway safety action teams (RSATs) to evaluate airports with the aim of reducing runway incursions. This manuscript describes the development of a decision-making tool that combines systems methodologies to help the FAA select airports at which employing RSATs would be the most beneficial for the reduction of collision risk. These methodologies include hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP).