Development and Validation of a Predictive Model to Identify Individuals Likely to Have Undiagnosed Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Using an Administrative Claims Database

BACKGROUND: Despite the importance of early detection, delayed diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is relatively common. Approximately 12 million people in the United States have undiagnosed COPD. Diagnosis of COPD is essential for the timely implementation of interventions, such as smoking cessation programs, drug therapies, and pulmonary rehabilitation, which are aimed at improving outcomes and slowing disease progression. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a predictive model to identify patients likely to have undiagnosed COPD using administrative claims data. METHODS: A predictive model was developed and validated utilizing a retrospective cohort of patients with and without a COPD diagnosis (cases and controls), aged 40-89, with a minimum of 24 months of continuous health plan enrollment (Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug [MAPD] and commercial plans), and identified between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2012, using Humana’s claims database. Stratified random sampling base...