Development of a hybrid model to predict construction and demolition waste: China as a case study

Construction and demolition waste (C&DW) is currently a worldwide issue, and the situation is the worst in China due to a rapid increase in the construction industry and the short life span of China’s buildings. To create an opportunity out of this problem, comprehensive prevention measures and effective management strategies are urgently needed. One major gap in the literature of waste management is a lack of estimations on future C&DW generation. Therefore, this paper presents a forecasting procedure for C&DW in China that can forecast the quantity of each component in such waste. The proposed approach is based on a GM-SVR model that improves the forecasting effectiveness of the gray model (GM), which is achieved by adjusting the residual series by a support vector regression (SVR) method and a transition matrix that aims to estimate the discharge of each component in the C&DW. Through the proposed method, future C&DW volume are listed and analyzed containing their potential components and distribution in different provinces in China. Besides, model testing process provides mathematical evidence to validate the proposed model is an effective way to give future information of C&DW for policy makers.