The Method of Failure Data Processing Analysis of Filling System in Launching Site Based on Bayesian Method

The high reliability and the short times carried of quantitative risk assessment of Filling system in launching site, the failure data is small sample data. In this paper, we will focus on these small sample data and take processing analysis. A method based on Bayesian method of failure data processing analysis of Filling system has been proposed, which firstly analyzes the characteristic of failure data of Filling system. Secondly, we classify the failure data into running failure data and demanding data according to the data types, and further analyze various uncertainty distributions under this two kinds of data type. What’s more, we use Bayesian method to solve the problems of various failure data. Lastly, we combine the real circumstance of Filling system and take the Filling system as example, and choose the filling pump, shut-off valve and pneumatic ball valve these three different failure types to use Bayesian method to analyze, and obtain various prior distributions and posterior distributions of different failure equipment, and give the simulation results.