Assessing uncertainty and risk in exploited marine populations

Abstract The assessment and management of exploited fish and invertebrate populations is subject to several types of uncertainty. This uncertainty translates into risk to the population in the development and implementation of fishery management advice. Here, we define risk as the probability that exploitation rates will exceed a threshold level where long term sustainability of the stock is threatened. We distinguish among several sources of error or uncertainty due to (a) stochasticity in demographic rates and processes, particularly in survival rates during the early fife stages; (b) measurement error resulting from sampling variation in the determination of population parameters or in model estimation; and (c) the lack of complete information on population and ecosystem dynamics. The first represents a form of aleatory uncertainty while the latter two factors represent forms of epistemic uncertainty. To illustrate these points, we evaluate the recent status of the Georges Bank cod stock in a risk assessment framework. Short term stochastic projections are made accounting for uncertainty in population size and for random variability in the number of young surviving to enter the fishery. We show that recent declines in this cod stock can be attributed to exploitation rates that have substantially exceeded sustainable levels.