Cascade impact of hurricane movement, storm tidal surge, sea level rise and precipitation variability on flood assessment in a coastal urban watershed

For comprehensive flood assessment, complex systems, both natural and man-made, must be accounted for due to prevailing cascade effects from the upper atmosphere to the subsurface with hydrological and hydraulic interactions in between. This study aims to demonstrate such cascade effects via an integrated nearshore oceanic and coastal watershed model. Such an integrated modeling system consists of a coupled hydrodynamic circulation and wave driven model [the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models], which can combine storm surge, astronomic tide levels and wave interaction, as well as an integrated hydrological/hydraulic model, namely the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model for coastal urban watershed simulation. In order to explore the worst scenario of coastal flooding impacts on a low-lying coastal watershed, the Cross Bayou Watershed within the Tampa Bay area of Florida was chosen for a multi-scale simulation analysis. To assess hurricane-induced storm tide, precipitation variability, and sea level rise collectively this multi-scale simulation analysis combines ADCIRC/SWAN and ICPR integratively. Findings indicate that such consideration of complex interactions at the coastal ocean, land surface, and sub-surface levels can provide useful flood assessments which are sensitive to slight changes in natural hazard characteristics such as storm intensity, radius of maximum winds, storm track, and landfall location.